The Indian SME Family Business Trade Confidence and Internationalisation Report reveals a 17.9-point gap between what 461 Indian SME exporter-owners believe they can achieve and the risk environment in which they must achieve it
MUMBAI, India, May 19, 2026 -- The Centre for Family Business & Entrepreneurship (CFBE) at Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan's S.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research (SPJIMR), Mumbai, has released its Indian SME Family Business Trade Confidence and Internationalisation Report, a comprehensive study of export confidence among India's SME family businesses.
Conducted in partnership with Hansa Research, the survey drew on 461 responses from owner-managers, directors, CEOs, and senior leaders of Indian SME family businesses actively engaged in international trade. Respondents represented 14 cities — from Ludhiana to Hyderabad and Jaipur to Kolkata — spanning every business-size category, every generational stage, and major industry, from manufacturing to trading. On average, these firms have been exporting for 16.4 years, with 82% reporting more than a decade of international trading experience.
The report is the first of its kind to deploy a four-index architecture that measures trade confidence holistically, separating forward-looking optimism from current risk burden, risk trajectory, and family governance tensions, before combining them into a single Net Trade Confidence Score (NTCS).
Unlike conventional confidence surveys that produce a single composite number, the SPJIMR CFBE methodology captures four distinct dimensions of what India's SME exporters are simultaneously experiencing:
Index | What It Measures | Score /100 | Key Finding |
TCI — Trade Confidence Index | Forward-looking optimism: export sales, order bookings, domestic economic confidence, trade finance | 74.3 | Firmly positive — SMEs optimistic about near-term trade prospects |
REI — Risk Environment Index | Current macro risk burden across 13 dimensions | 45.8 | Below neutral — risk environment is uniformly hostile across all dimensions |
RMI — Risk Momentum Index | Direction of macro risk travel over past 6 months — getting better or worse? | 40.5 | Well below neutral — every risk dimension is actively escalating |
FGRI — Family Governance Risk Index | Family-specific governance risk: intra-family disagreements, succession, generational risk appetite | 45.6 | Below neutral — family governance tensions present and worsening |
NTCS — Net Trade Confidence Score | Weighted composite: 40% TCI + 35% REI + 15% RMI + 10% FGRI | 56.4 | Modestly positive but 17.9 points below TCI — risk environment is a substantial drag |
The 17.9-point gap between the TCI (74.3) and the NTCS (56.4) emerges as the report's most significant finding. It quantifies a tension familiar to exporting SME family business across India: the gap between what businesses believe they can achieve and the environment in which they must operate.
Reflecting on the central paradox her research uncovered, author Tulsi Jayakumar, Executive Director – CFBE and Professor of Economics and Policy at SPJIMR, offered this assessment of what the data truly reveals: "Our data captures something that aggregate trade statistics simply cannot: the lived experience of an Indian SME exporter who is genuinely optimistic about what their business can achieve, while simultaneously navigating a risk environment that is hostile across every dimension and worsening across every trajectory. The 17.9-point gap between the TCI and the NTCS is not a rounding error; it is the quantitative expression of a structural tension that policymakers and support institutions can no longer afford to treat as background noise."
The report's findings carry direct implications for policymakers and institutions across India's export support ecosystem. Prof. Jayakumar has distilled the findings into six specific policy recommendations, each with identified mechanisms, responsible parties, and measurable outcomes.
Central among these are a targeted FTA literacy and activation programme, a dedicated SME family business export finance facility to address the structural credit-access gap, and crucially, an institutional framework to support family governance in internationalisation decisions, an area not currently addressed by existing export-promotion mechanisms.
The report ultimately poses a direct question to policymakers: if India's most experienced and export-intensive SME family businesses are operating within a risk environment that is universally hostile and increasingly volatile, what corrective interventions are prepared to support them?
About SPJIMR
Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan's S.P. Jain Institute of Management & Research (SPJIMR) is one of India's leading postgraduate management institutes. It is ranked by Business Today as one of the country's top five business schools, and rated by the Positive Impact Rating as one of the top five schools worldwide for societal impact. Known for its innovative and socially conscious approach to management education, research, and community engagement, SPJIMR aims to influence managerial practice and promote the value-based growth of its students, alumni, organisations and its leaders, and society. SPJIMR holds the international 'Triple Crown' of accreditations from EQUIS, AACSB, and AMBA.
Visit SPJIMR.org for more information.
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